Three of a Kind vs. Full House, A Nail-Biting Texas Hold'em Showdown
This Texas Hold'em hand analysis took place at Hustler Casino Live, with blinds at 100/200/400/800. The effective stack was around 86K. This hand is a textbook psychological battle, so let's dive into this thrilling showdown!
I. Pre-Flop Action and Analysis—When Your Pot Gets a Bit Crowded
After several folds, Raymond in the HJ position raises to 2400 with 7♥7♦. Andy on the button calls with A♠Q♥. Our protagonist Airball has A♥5♥, but instead of 3-betting, he just calls. Then back to the straddle position, Boss Pete with K♠4♣ decides to call as well.
Oh, Boss Pete! I'm not picking on you, but this is a classic mistake many Texas Hold'em beginners make. Many people feel obligated to call after they've straddled, thinking the odds look tempting, like a beautiful woman smiling at you.
But, dear readers, a high card plus a low card, not even suited, is the antithesis of "beauty equals justice" in poker! This hand is more easily dominated than your grandmother's face, by hands like pairs higher than your low card, or hands with better kickers like AK, KQ, KJ, etc.
So, even if you're getting decent pot odds, your hand is easily dominated, and with your poor position, it's difficult to realize your equity—like trying to practice tai chi in a crowded subway. When you have these big card/small card unsuited combinations, even if you've straddled, even if you want to gamble, don't gamble with these hands. They're worse than even 72 suited, which at least has a chance to make a flush, though that's not great either.
So, take note: in multiway pots, don't defend with too wide a range. It's like flexing your biceps in front of a group of boxers—it's going to be embarrassing!
II. Flop Action and Analysis—When A Meets J, But It's Not a Love Story
The flop comes 9♦A♣J♣.
Airball checks, Pete checks, Raymond checks, and Andy bets 5700 from the button. Only Airball calls.
Andy's bet of 5700 from the button, about half the pot, is excellent—like a precise surgical knife cutting into the pot.
Back to Airball, who has top pair with a weak kicker. I believe the correct play here is to fold. You might think that's too tight, like proposing marriage on a first date, but you need to consider Andy's pre-flop calling range from the button. He'll have many strong hands like AJ, A9 suited, J9 suited, KT of clubs, KQ of clubs, T8 suited, and so on.
Although Airball's hand is ahead of the drawing hands in his opponent's range, those reasonable draws still have very good equity. In other words, Airball's hand is far behind the made hands in his opponent's range, and only breaking even against the draws. So what's the point in continuing? It's like knowing your opponent is a boxing champion and still wanting to fight—the result is predictable.
So, in this multiway pot with deep stacks, this hand should be folded. Airball will find it difficult to realize his equity with this hand, and so would anyone else—that's the cruel reality of Texas Hold'em.
III. Turn Action and Analysis—When A Meets Another A, It's a Twin Story
The turn is the A♦.
Airball checks, Andy bets 15,600.
Airball calls.
The turn is a disaster for Airball, like buying a new car only to have it hit by bird droppings. Now he can't escape; he can only check, as helpless as someone trapped in an elevator.
Andy makes a large bet, three-quarters of the pot. I think this sizing is good, and I even believe it could be larger, like a full pot-sized bet, because there are two possible flush draws on the board. It's like knowing your opponent has a weakness and attacking it aggressively.
At the same time, I believe that if the opponent truly has an A, they won't fold to a larger bet—like a person who hasn't eaten for three days won't refuse a feast. If the opponent has a J, they might fold, but it's hard to say. Additionally, Airball might have draws like a straight draw or a flush draw. These hands still have some equity against Andy's strong hand, like a small shrimp against a whale—slim but not impossible.
When your hand is extremely strong, almost certainly the best hand at the moment, but could potentially be outdrawn, you must make a large bet. This is the "offense is the best defense" principle in Texas Hold'em. When you have deep stacks, you should make even larger bets with good hands. Andy has a tiny chance of losing to a full house, but the probability is too low, and Andy should be very willing to make a large bet immediately.
Airball has no choice but to call. With so many possible draws out there, what's wrong with calling with three of a kind? It's like having invested a lot of time in a relationship; even knowing it might not be the best choice, it's hard to let go.
IV. River Action and Analysis—When the God of Fate Decides to Play a Joke
The river is the 5♦.
Airball checks again, Andy bets 32,600, and Airball announces all-in.
Andy...
Airball's luck is incredible, like winning the lottery jackpot! He checks first, which is very good. Many people would be unable to resist leading out at this point, like wanting to tell the whole world immediately after receiving good news. But what hands would call you? Three of a kind would call, but if you don't bet, your opponent with three of a kind will bet anyway. And when you lead, you might scare away missed draws in your opponent's range, when you should be giving them a chance to bluff. So Airball's check is correct—this is the patience of an experienced Texas Hold'em player.
Then Andy makes a 60% pot-sized bet, which is reasonable, but I think going all-in might be better. Although the river is a diamond, and Airball might have completed a diamond flush, his range still contains many missed draws. Going all-in, although more than the pot, isn't a big problem because many AX hands would call, and Airball's range contains many AX hands. This is the game between experts, where every decision can affect the final outcome.
Back to Airball, he of course has to go all-in, like using all your strength when you have the nuts. What should Andy do now? He's getting very good odds. He only needs to call 30K to win a pot of nearly 180K, which is an irresistible temptation.
After careful consideration, Andy folds his three of a kind! This decision stunned all the spectators, like watching someone refuse a million-dollar check.
Looking at the result, his decision was correct, but in the long run, against Airball, with such good odds, is folding really the right decision? This is a question worth pondering.
You all know I can't resist such good pot odds, just like I can't resist the temptation of good food. If you regularly read my articles, you'll know that nobody would check-raise on the river without an effective nut hand, especially when the opponent is getting such good odds to call. It's like nobody would challenge a world champion without having cards.
On this board, what are the effective nut hands? Full house is one, and perhaps a flush. Can Andy beat the effective nut hands? Not at all. But the issue is, Andy has an A. This A blocks most of the effective nut hands, like AJ, A5, A9 that could make a full house, so this should actually incline him toward calling. This is the concept of "blocker cards" in Texas Hold'em, a technique that advanced players must master.
Another factor that should make him call is that his opponent is Airball. Airball fires too many blank shots, like someone who loves to exaggerate. Even if this time, a player with a range as wide as Airball's isn't bluffing, even if he's not bluffing with hands like T8 offsuit or QT offsuit, you still have to call given the great odds. It's like being offered an almost guaranteed winning bet.
But Andy folded. If you ask me, in the long run, is this fold correct? I would reluctantly say, probably not. If his opponent wasn't Airball, if it was someone else, folding might be correct and not so difficult, but against Airball, folding is too hard—it's like facing someone who often lies, yet choosing to believe they're telling the truth this time.
This is the value of Airball's loose-aggressive, wild style. His play is like that of an unpredictable madman, making it impossible for opponents to accurately judge his hand strength. Unfortunately, this time Andy saw through it. He guessed his opponent had the nuts, and although his hand was good, it wasn't the nuts, so he folded.
What do you think about this? Would you call in this situation? Or would you fold like Andy? The charm of Texas Hold'em lies in this—every decision is full of challenges and thought, and that's why we love this game so much!